Thursday, 31 December 2009

Day 1

Current Bank £105.02

A pretty poor start to the campaign but a profit none the less. The opening match between Ferrer and Davydenko went rather well pulling in an approximate 14% profit over 2 markets. Despite numerous trading opportunities the 2nd match resulted in a loss of 9%

Total P&L for the opening day +£5.02
5% increase on bank.

I'm am hoping to trade an average of 20% profit on stake so day 1 is under par.

Wednesday, 30 December 2009

It Has Arrived Early


Current Bank £100

Well folks the new tennis season is here! Although I said previously we would be starting on the 3rd January they are once again running the Capitalia World Tennis Championship. This is an exhibition tournament in Dubai featuring 6 random players. The tournament is run over 3 days starting tomorrow so we are starting early :)



Rodger Federer and Raphael Nadal are given a bye through to the semi final. Challenging the top two are David Ferrer, Nikolay Davydenko, Robin Soderling and Stanislas Wawrinka. Tomorrow sees the following matches starting at 11:00am CET and are all shown on Sky:

Match 1: Ferrer v Davydenko
Match 2: Soderling v Warwinka

My Approach for Tomorrow

For all players this is their first competitive play since the close of the tennis season so don't expect a good show, however this is actually good news. The early tournaments shoot up numerous opportunities as players a take time to get back into their stride. Their mistakes provide entry points for us traders. Of the games tomorrow Davydenko and Soderling start as favorites. With the expectation that the 2 players will still be full of Christmas turkey and the fact that this is an exhibition tournament posing no real importance to either, both starting prices are far too short. Their opponents are more than capable of upsets here. Wawrinka is no mug and Ferrer showed in the Davis Cup final what he is made of.

These two matches are very similar and will be tackled using the same approach. I am going to anticipate favorite swings in both games and trade the set betting markets. I will look for further opportunities as the games pan out.

The new tennis season is here. Good luck for tomorrow. I will post results at the end of the opening day.

Saturday, 26 December 2009

How Will I Run This?

I hope you all had a great Christmas. I sure did!

A few friends have asked over xmas drinks why I am putting the results of the challenge onto a website. There are 2 main reasons for producing this blog.

Firstly and most importantly to challenge myself. I love to set myself new goals each time pushing back the boundaries. I would consider it a great achievement to hit the target figure and the website will keep me focused and on the right track. I will also learn a lot from my own trading experiences and from talking to others. The website simply make the challenge known and forces me to continually apply 100%.

Secondly to help others. As I post my results I look forward to hearing how others are doing and will try to offer pointers to those that are struggling or new to tennis trading.

I intend to post my results as often as I can. I will be trading the tennis most days of the year and I intend to give regular P&L snapshots with a mini breakdown of the techniques used to achieve the results. This will not be every day as I simply won't have the time but I will do my best to add these as often as possible. Every post from the opening day will have the current bank figure included so that you are always aware of the overall progress.

For the larger tournaments throughout the year I will post a pretournament write up of my thoughts with an in depth analysis of the tournament winner market. This will usually be for my own enjoyment and will not play a big part in the overall challenge.

The 2010 tennis season is just around the corner. If you have and pre season trading questions please feel free to drop me an email.

8 Days to Go!!

Monday, 21 December 2009

2009 Review

The 2009 tennis season has been one to remember on both the mens and womens sides. For the first time in years the dominance of the top two Rodger Federer and Raphael Nadal has been broken up by new talent. As with 2008 Novak Djokovic continued to apply the pressure and for most of the season held the number 3 spot. After breaking in to the worlds top 10 late 2008 Andy Murray built upon this success by breaking into the top 4. He even had a few weeks as world number 3. But the biggest story in the mens game as far as world Rankings go has to go the Juan Martin Del Potro. The 19 year old Argentine has cruised to the top of the mens game and has really troubled the worlds best.

As always the 4 majors were great events and really showcased the sport. In January Raphael Nadal claimed his first hard court Grand Slam winning the Australian Open in Melbourne. Playing in perhaps the form of his career many thought that he would go on to do the "Grand Slam" and win all 4 majors in a single tennis season. Something that even Federer has not yet achieved. In the months that followed he dethroned the King and for the first time in 5 years there was a new man in the number 1 spot. All of this success came crashing back down to earth however when against all odds Nadal was beaten in the 2nd Major of the year Roland Garos. It was a shock 3rd round dismissal and seemed to plague the rest of his season. If Rodger Federer was ever going to take the elusive French Open title it had to be now. He stepped up to the mark and won the final major trophy missing from his collection.

Federer soon returned to form and it was only a matter of time before he regained his position as world number 1. He won Wimbledon in a fairly comfortable manner and made the final of the US Open in August. This last match of this tournament saw Juan Martin Del Potro in his first Grandslam final come from behind to win his first major. It was an epic 5 set battle and a match that confirmed the Argentine as one of the games current greats.

The Women's tour has been a lot more open with a much less of an elite group than the mens. The majority of the year saw Dinara Safina holding the number 1 spot. Despite reaching the finals at both the Australian Open and Roland Garos and the semi final of Wimbledon she still awaits her first major title. As usual the Williams sisters stepped up 5 gears at the majors and claimed 2 and reach the later stages at the others.

The real fairy tail this year came at the US Open. Former world number 1 Kim Clijsters returned to the game after a long period out to have a child. She played just 2 tournaments in the run up to Flushing Meadows before take the major for the 2nd time. She becomes only the 2nd woman to win a major title after becoming a parent.

2009 was a great year for both tennis and trading. I am fully expecting 2010 to be even better!

Sunday, 20 December 2009

Patience is a Virtue

I am running this challenge with a starting bank as small as £100. This will mean that in the first few months the profits will be small but relative to the stake. As the betting bank grows so will the win / loss figures. When attempting a challenge such as this or for that matter any form of trading you should always remind yourself of the bigger picture and your long term P&Ls.

In order to hit the £35,000 target I will aim to double the betting bank on a monthly basis. This is fairly important and will put us slightly ahead of ourselves. There will be times in the year where I will be unable to trade or where the markets themselves are not suitable. Also there is very little tennis played throughout the month of December and so realistically the challenge will end the first week of Dec 2010.

Either way patience is the key and you must learn this if you want to become a successful trader.

14 Days to Go!!!

Wednesday, 16 December 2009

Staking

Yesterday I was asked the question how am I going to manage the staking for this challenge? What stake will be used for each match?

The answer is this. The starting bank is £100 and at no point will I risk anymore than 10% of what I have. More often than not however the amount staked on a trade will be even less than 10%. I will be using a total of 6 different trading strategies and the amount of money varies depending on which strategy is used.

Trading is very different to betting in that stakes must remain the same for each strategy. Increasing after each win is the fast road to disaster. However the £35,000 target will not be reached without a gradual stake increase. Stakes will be increased only when the overall bank hits certain levels. Every Sunday I will review my staking plans for the following week.

This is going to be a very gradual challenge and you will see on the posted P&Ls that the profit in January will be very small. As the stakes increase over the months as will the profit.

17 Days to Go!!!

Tuesday, 15 December 2009

Why £35,000?

Many of the other blogs you read that are going to demonstrate a run over a 12 month period are attempting £100K+ so why only £35,000. This is due to a number of reasons:

Firstly, many of the people attempting £100K fail and only hit around £20,000 over the 12 month period. That is still respectable but is a failure as far as the initial goal is concerned.

Secondly, most of the people attempting these trading challenges trade horse racing. Horse racing is a sport designed with gambling in mind. There are numerous meetings, all at convenient times in the day and all fetching in crazy amounts of market liquidity.

Tennis is very different in that most of the tournaments played will be oversees therefore making it difficult to trade every day. Tennis is not a sport designed for gambling and many of the markets simply do not possess the required levels of liquidity to trade. In 2009 I pulled in around £20,000 so for 2010 I am going the extra mile for £35,000 which I believe is an achievable target.

18 Days to Go!!!

Monday, 14 December 2009

Tennis Trading Challenge 2010 Launch!

Hello and welcome,

Allow me to introduce myself. I am a keen sports enthusiast with a real passion for tennis. I have been betting on the game for around 5 years now and up until last year my results were rather average. Betting on tennis is very difficult indeed. The tennis markets are so precise that identifying value selections is a tough process. Last year however I discovered trading.

Early 2008 I invested in Bet Angel professional with the intention of trading the horse racing. As I familiarised myself with market movements and how an exchange actually works I started to identify potential opportunities in tennis. I then waded through the mass array of bogus strategies the internet has to offer until I found a few that worked. I then repeatedly implemented these ideas and techniques, slowly but surely mastering them. In the final quater of 2008 I made a profit of just short of £6000.

Now feeling very confident in my ability as a trader I would like to set myself the above challenge of turning £100 into £35,000 buy the end of 2010. I will post P&L screenshots as we go along and discuss the strategies used in each image.

Aside from the trading I would like to use this blog to discuss all things tennis so feel free to drop me a line about anything at all.

19 Days to Go!!!